Seattle Sounders 2–0 Minnesota United FC

Seattle Sounders

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Minnesota United FC

P. Rothrock 57'

J. Morris 28'

6/16/2024

Major League Soccer · Round 26Lumen Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Seattle Sounders52%

×Draw23%

Minnesota United FC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seattle SoundersExpected goals in this matchMinnesota United FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.22

Seattle Sounders

1.85

Minnesota United FC

1.22

Seattle Sounders creates 52% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 39 away

1.97

creates per match

1.35

1.09

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Seattle Sounders

1.97

Minnesota United FC

1.35

allows per match

Seattle Sounders

1.09

Minnesota United FC

1.74

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

Seattle Sounders+0.12scores more

Minnesota United FC+0.27scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Sounders ↓

Minnesota United FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Seattle Sounders or draw

75%

Seattle Sounders or Minnesota United FC

77%

Draw or Minnesota United FC

48%

Winning margin

Seattle Sounders wins by 2+

29%

Minnesota United FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Seattle Sounders 1+ goals

84%

Seattle Sounders 2+ goals

55%

Seattle Sounders 3+ goals

28%

Minnesota United FC 1+ goals

70%

Minnesota United FC 2+ goals

34%

Minnesota United FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Seattle Sounders (draw refunded)

67%

Minnesota United FC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Sounders at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.09 · 33 matches

Minnesota United FC away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.74 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Sounders attack 1.97 + Minnesota United FC defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.85

Minnesota United FC attack 1.35 + Seattle Sounders defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Seattle Sounders scores more

52%

level

23%

Minnesota United FC scores more

25%

Seattle Sounders at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Seattle Sounders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

João Paulo

Seattle Sounders · M

8.2

Match Events

7'

P. Rothrock← A. Roldan

7'

J. Adebayo-Smith← D. Padelford

27'

28'

46'

57'

59'

61'

68'

M. Nyeman← R. Lod

68'

V. Eriksson← K. Arriaga

81'

Z. Valentin← Jeong Sang-Bin

88'

Moses NyemanCard upgrade

90'

Moses Nyeman

90+2'

J. Bell← N. Tolo

90+2'

D. Leyva← A. Rusnák

90+2'

P. Weah← B. Hlongwane

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SeattleMinnesota

Overview

58%Possession42%

9Total Shots5

1.61Expected Goals (xG)0.27

6Corners3

10Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots5

4On Target0

3Off Target4

2Blocked1

8Inside Box3

1Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

573Total Passes414

486Accurate Passes324

85%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

-0.01Goals Prevented-0.01

Discipline

10Fouls13

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1