Seattle Sounders 0–1 Los Angeles FC: Result & Stats

Seattle Sounders

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Los Angeles FC

11/27/2023

Major League Soccer · MLS Cup - Conference Semi-finalsLumen Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Seattle Sounders43%

×Draw23%

Los Angeles FC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seattle SoundersExpected goals in this matchLos Angeles FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.47

Seattle Sounders

1.71

Los Angeles FC

1.47

Seattle Sounders creates 16% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 19 away

2.11

creates per match

1.59

1.34

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Seattle Sounders

2.11

Los Angeles FC

1.59

allows per match

Seattle Sounders

1.34

Los Angeles FC

1.31

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Seattle Sounders-0.11scores less

Los Angeles FC+0.20scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Sounders ↓

Los Angeles FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Seattle Sounders or draw

67%

Seattle Sounders or Los Angeles FC

77%

Draw or Los Angeles FC

57%

Winning margin

Seattle Sounders wins by 2+

23%

Los Angeles FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Seattle Sounders 1+ goals

82%

Seattle Sounders 2+ goals

51%

Seattle Sounders 3+ goals

24%

Los Angeles FC 1+ goals

77%

Los Angeles FC 2+ goals

43%

Los Angeles FC 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Seattle Sounders (draw refunded)

57%

Los Angeles FC (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Sounders at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.34 · 17 matches

Los Angeles FC away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.31 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Sounders attack 2.11 + Los Angeles FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.71

Los Angeles FC attack 1.59 + Seattle Sounders defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Seattle Sounders scores more

43%

level

23%

Los Angeles FC scores more

33%

Seattle Sounders at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Seattle Sounders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff