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Seattle Sounders vs FC Dallas — Major League Soccer 2026

Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Dallas
FC Dallas
F. Montero 72'
F. Jara 90+1'
8/5/2021Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 23Lumen Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Seattle Sounders52%
×Draw23%
FC Dallas25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seattle Sounders
1.79
FC Dallas
1.16

Seattle Sounders creates 54% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 48 away

creates per match

Seattle Sounders
1.97
FC Dallas
1.23

allows per match

Seattle Sounders
1.09
FC Dallas
1.61

finishing

Seattle Sounders+0.12scores more
FC Dallas+0.02on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Sounders ↓

FC Dallas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Seattle Sounders or draw
75%
Seattle Sounders or FC Dallas
77%
Draw or FC Dallas
48%

Winning margin

Seattle Sounders wins by 2+
29%
FC Dallas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Seattle Sounders 1+ goals
83%
Seattle Sounders 2+ goals
53%
Seattle Sounders 3+ goals
26%
FC Dallas 1+ goals
69%
FC Dallas 2+ goals
32%
FC Dallas 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Seattle Sounders (draw refunded)
68%
FC Dallas (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Sounders at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.09 · 33 matches

FC Dallas away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.61 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Sounders attack 1.97 + FC Dallas defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.79

FC Dallas attack 1.23 + Seattle Sounders defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Seattle Sounders scores more
52%
level
23%
FC Dallas scores more
25%

Seattle Sounders at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Seattle Sounders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
João PauloSeattle SoundersSeattle Sounders · M
7.9

Match Events

60'
B. Smith← J. Medranda
66'
J. Obrian← S. Schön
66'
B. Acosta← J. Ferreira
72'
F. Montero↳ João Paulo
73'
W. Bruin← F. Montero
76'
F. Jara← R. Pepi
76'
A. Ricaurte← E. Cerrillo
78'
F. Vargas← P. Pomykal
87'
Bradley Smith
87'
N. Lodeiro← K. Rowe
90+1'
F. Jara↳ N. Burgess

Possession

48%Seattle

Shots

16Seattle

Pass accuracy

51%Seattle

Statistics

SeattleFC
Overview
48%Possession52%
16Total Shots10
3Corners5
11Fouls13
Shots
16Total Shots10
6On Target3
5Off Target4
5Blocked3
10Inside Box5
6Outside Box5
Passing
48%Possession52%
438Total Passes504
377Accurate Passes421
86%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls13
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides2

Major League Soccer: Seattle Sounders 1–1 FC Dallas

Seattle Sounders and FC Dallas drew 1-1 in Major League Soccer on August 5, 2021.

Goals: F. Montero (72'), F. Jara (90+1').

FC Dallas controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 16.

The match was played at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington.