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Seattle Sounders III vs Calgary Foothills — USL League Two 2018

Seattle Sounders III
Seattle Sounders III
PST
21:00
Calgary Foothills
Calgary Foothills
5/24/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 11Pop Keeney Stadium (Bothell)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Seattle Sounders III39%
×Draw21%
Calgary Foothills40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seattle Sounders III
2.04
Calgary Foothills
2.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Seattle Sounders III
2.75
Calgary Foothills
2.67

allows per match

Seattle Sounders III
1.50
Calgary Foothills
1.33

finishing

Seattle Sounders III+0.00on par
Calgary Foothills+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Sounders III ↓

Calgary Foothills →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Seattle Sounders III or draw
60%
Seattle Sounders III or Calgary Foothills
79%
Draw or Calgary Foothills
61%

Winning margin

Seattle Sounders III wins by 2+
21%
Calgary Foothills wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Seattle Sounders III 1+ goals
87%
Seattle Sounders III 2+ goals
60%
Seattle Sounders III 3+ goals
33%
Calgary Foothills 1+ goals
87%
Calgary Foothills 2+ goals
61%
Calgary Foothills 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Seattle Sounders III (draw refunded)
49%
Calgary Foothills (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Sounders III at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Calgary Foothills away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Sounders III attack 2.75 + Calgary Foothills defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.04

Calgary Foothills attack 2.67 + Seattle Sounders III defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Seattle Sounders III scores more
39%
level
21%
Calgary Foothills scores more
40%

Calgary Foothills at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Calgary Foothills will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Seattle Sounders III vs Calgary Foothills — Match Preview

Seattle Sounders III face Calgary Foothills on May 24, 2020 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Seattle Sounders III host Calgary Foothills at Pop Keeney Stadium (Bothell).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.