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Seattle Reign FC W vs Orlando Pride W — NWSL Women 2026

Seattle Reign FC W
Seattle Reign FC W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Orlando Pride W
Orlando Pride W
9/3/2023NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 12Lumen Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Seattle Reign FC W46%
×Draw26%
Orlando Pride W28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seattle Reign FC W
1.45
Orlando Pride W
1.07

Seattle Reign FC W creates 36% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 81 away

creates per match

Seattle Reign FC W
1.35
Orlando Pride W
1.10

allows per match

Seattle Reign FC W
1.04
Orlando Pride W
1.54

finishing

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par
Orlando Pride W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Reign FC W ↓

Orlando Pride W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Seattle Reign FC W or draw
72%
Seattle Reign FC W or Orlando Pride W
74%
Draw or Orlando Pride W
54%

Winning margin

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+
22%
Orlando Pride W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals
77%
Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals
42%
Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals
18%
Orlando Pride W 1+ goals
66%
Orlando Pride W 2+ goals
29%
Orlando Pride W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)
62%
Orlando Pride W (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Reign FC W at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.04 · 85 matches

Orlando Pride W away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.54 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.35 + Orlando Pride W defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.45

Orlando Pride W attack 1.10 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Seattle Reign FC W scores more
46%
level
26%
Orlando Pride W scores more
28%

Seattle Reign FC W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Seattle Reign FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Seattle Reign FC W vs Orlando Pride W

Seattle Reign FC W beat Orlando Pride W 1-0 in NWSL Women on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington.