Seattle Reign FC W vs North Carolina Courage W

Seattle Reign FC W

Preview

02:00

North Carolina Courage W

10/3/2026

NWSL Women · Group StageLumen Field

Big match

41%

Seattle Reign FC W

model favours

41%28%32%

Seattle Reign FC W score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

57%

under 2.5 goals

49%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Seattle Reign FC W41%

×Draw28%

North Carolina Courage W32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seattle Reign FC WExpected goals in this matchNorth Carolina Courage W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.11

Seattle Reign FC W

1.29

North Carolina Courage W

1.11

Seattle Reign FC W creates 16% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 22 away

1.08

creates per match

1.27

0.96

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Seattle Reign FC W

1.08

North Carolina Courage W

1.27

allows per match

Seattle Reign FC W

0.96

North Carolina Courage W

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

North Carolina Courage W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Reign FC W ↓

North Carolina Courage W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Seattle Reign FC W or draw

68%

Seattle Reign FC W or North Carolina Courage W

72%

Draw or North Carolina Courage W

59%

Winning margin

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+

18%

North Carolina Courage W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals

72%

Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals

37%

Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals

14%

North Carolina Courage W 1+ goals

67%

North Carolina Courage W 2+ goals

30%

North Carolina Courage W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)

56%

North Carolina Courage W (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Reign FC W at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.96 · 26 matches

North Carolina Courage W away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.08 + North Carolina Courage W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

North Carolina Courage W attack 1.27 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Seattle Reign FC W scores more

41%

level

28%

North Carolina Courage W scores more

32%

Seattle Reign FC W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Seattle Reign FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Seattle Reign FC W fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.5 expected)
North Carolina Courage W fall short of their xG (1.3 vs 1.8 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Seattle Reign FC W

Balanced

North Carolina Courage W

Possession-dominant

47%Possession59%

77%Pass accuracy84%

9.3ShotsBiggest gap11.8

1.51xG1.75

Seattle Reign FC WNorth Carolina Courage W

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3

Seattle Reign FC W

0

Draws

2

North Carolina Courage W

Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 60%

1–32–12–11–00–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

W

WLLWL

W

LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff