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Seahorses vs Golden State Force — USL League Two 2018

Seahorses
Seahorses
PST
02:00
Golden State Force
Golden State Force
6/25/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 39Whittier College Field (Whittier, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Seahorses48%
×Draw23%
Golden State Force29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seahorses
1.81
Golden State Force
1.34

Seahorses creates 35% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 7 away

creates per match

Seahorses
1.76
Golden State Force
0.86

allows per match

Seahorses
1.82
Golden State Force
1.86

finishing

Seahorses+0.00on par
Golden State Force+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seahorses ↓

Golden State Force →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Seahorses or draw
71%
Seahorses or Golden State Force
77%
Draw or Golden State Force
52%

Winning margin

Seahorses wins by 2+
27%
Golden State Force wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Seahorses 1+ goals
84%
Seahorses 2+ goals
54%
Seahorses 3+ goals
27%
Golden State Force 1+ goals
74%
Golden State Force 2+ goals
39%
Golden State Force 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Seahorses (draw refunded)
63%
Golden State Force (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seahorses at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

Golden State Force away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seahorses attack 1.76 + Golden State Force defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.81

Golden State Force attack 0.86 + Seahorses defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Seahorses scores more
48%
level
23%
Golden State Force scores more
29%

Seahorses at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Seahorses will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Seahorses host Golden State Force

June 25, 2020: Seahorses take on Golden State Force in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Seahorses host Golden State Force at Whittier College Field (Whittier, California).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.