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SDYuShOR 8 vs Kyran — Cup 2019

SDYuShOR 8
SDYuShOR 8
PST
00:00
Kyran
Kyran
3/17/2020CupCup · Group Stage - 2BIIK Futbol'noye Pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

SDYuShOR 839%
×Draw19%
Kyran42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SDYuShOR 8
2.35
Kyran
2.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

SDYuShOR 8
2.50
Kyran
3.00

allows per match

SDYuShOR 8
1.83
Kyran
2.20

finishing

SDYuShOR 8+0.00on par
Kyran+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SDYuShOR 8 ↓

Kyran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

SDYuShOR 8 or draw
58%
SDYuShOR 8 or Kyran
81%
Draw or Kyran
61%

Winning margin

SDYuShOR 8 wins by 2+
22%
Kyran wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

SDYuShOR 8 1+ goals
90%
SDYuShOR 8 2+ goals
68%
SDYuShOR 8 3+ goals
41%
Kyran 1+ goals
91%
Kyran 2+ goals
69%
Kyran 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

SDYuShOR 8 (draw refunded)
49%
Kyran (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SDYuShOR 8 at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Kyran away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SDYuShOR 8 attack 2.50 + Kyran defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.35

Kyran attack 3.00 + SDYuShOR 8 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SDYuShOR 8 scores more
39%
level
19%
Kyran scores more
42%

Kyran at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kyran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SDYuShOR 8 face Kyran (Cup)

Cup returns with SDYuShOR 8 hosting Kyran. Match starts March 17, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

SDYuShOR 8 host Kyran at BIIK Futbol'noye Pole.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.