SD Raiders 1–2 Mounties Wanderers: Result & Stats

SD Raiders

FT

1 – 2

Mounties Wanderers

4/9/2022

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 5Valentine Sports Park 2 Synthetic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

SD Raiders51%

×Draw23%

Mounties Wanderers27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SD RaidersExpected goals in this matchMounties Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.31

SD Raiders

1.89

Mounties Wanderers

1.31

SD Raiders creates 44% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 50 away

1.70

creates per match

1.24

1.37

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

SD Raiders

1.70

Mounties Wanderers

1.24

allows per match

SD Raiders

1.37

Mounties Wanderers

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SD Raiders+0.00on par

Mounties Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SD Raiders ↓

Mounties Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

SD Raiders or draw

73%

SD Raiders or Mounties Wanderers

77%

Draw or Mounties Wanderers

49%

Winning margin

SD Raiders wins by 2+

29%

Mounties Wanderers wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

SD Raiders 1+ goals

85%

SD Raiders 2+ goals

56%

SD Raiders 3+ goals

29%

Mounties Wanderers 1+ goals

73%

Mounties Wanderers 2+ goals

38%

Mounties Wanderers 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

SD Raiders (draw refunded)

66%

Mounties Wanderers (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SD Raiders at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.37 · 63 matches

Mounties Wanderers away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.08 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SD Raiders attack 1.70 + Mounties Wanderers defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.89

Mounties Wanderers attack 1.24 + SD Raiders defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

SD Raiders scores more

51%

level

23%

Mounties Wanderers scores more

27%

SD Raiders at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "SD Raiders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff