Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SCR Altach vs SV Mattersburg — Bundesliga 2018

SCR Altach
SCR Altach
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
SV Mattersburg
SV Mattersburg
3/30/2019BundesligaBundesliga · Relegation Round - 1Cashpoint Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

SCR Altach43%
×Draw25%
SV Mattersburg31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SCR Altach
1.51
SV Mattersburg
1.24

SCR Altach creates 22% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 31 away

creates per match

SCR Altach
1.13
SV Mattersburg
1.13

allows per match

SCR Altach
1.35
SV Mattersburg
1.90

finishing

SCR Altach+0.00on par
SV Mattersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SCR Altach ↓

SV Mattersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

SCR Altach or draw
69%
SCR Altach or SV Mattersburg
75%
Draw or SV Mattersburg
57%

Winning margin

SCR Altach wins by 2+
21%
SV Mattersburg wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

SCR Altach 1+ goals
78%
SCR Altach 2+ goals
44%
SCR Altach 3+ goals
19%
SV Mattersburg 1+ goals
71%
SV Mattersburg 2+ goals
35%
SV Mattersburg 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

SCR Altach (draw refunded)
58%
SV Mattersburg (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SCR Altach at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.35 · 127 matches

SV Mattersburg away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.90 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SCR Altach attack 1.13 + SV Mattersburg defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.51

SV Mattersburg attack 1.13 + SCR Altach defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SCR Altach scores more
43%
level
25%
SV Mattersburg scores more
31%

SCR Altach at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SCR Altach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SCR Altach vs SV Mattersburg

SCR Altach beat SV Mattersburg 2-1 in Bundesliga on March 30, 2019.

The match was played at Cashpoint Arena in Altach.