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Scotland vs Switzerland — UEFA Nations League 2018

Scotland
Scotland
Preview
18:45
Switzerland
Switzerland
9/29/2026UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · 2
Big match
58%
Scotland
model favours
58%23%18%

Switzerland are unbeaten in 8 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Scotland58%
×Draw23%
Switzerland18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scotland
1.75
Switzerland
0.86

Scotland creates 103% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Scotland
1.50
Switzerland
0.90

allows per match

Scotland
0.83
Switzerland
2.00

finishing

Scotland+0.00on par
Switzerland+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scotland ↓

Switzerland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Scotland or draw
82%
Scotland or Switzerland
77%
Draw or Switzerland
42%

Winning margin

Scotland wins by 2+
33%
Switzerland wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Scotland 1+ goals
83%
Scotland 2+ goals
52%
Scotland 3+ goals
25%
Switzerland 1+ goals
58%
Switzerland 2+ goals
21%
Switzerland 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Scotland (draw refunded)
76%
Switzerland (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scotland at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Switzerland away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scotland attack 1.50 + Switzerland defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Switzerland attack 0.90 + Scotland defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Scotland scores more
58%
level
23%
Switzerland scores more
18%

Scotland at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Scotland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 52% of Switzerland’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Scotland 3 vs Switzerland 4

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Scotland
Balanced
Switzerland
Balanced
50%Possession51%
83%Pass accuracy83%
11.1ShotsBiggest gap11.9
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ScotlandSwitzerland

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Scotland
LLWWW
Switzerland
DDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Scotland vs Switzerland — Match Preview

Scotland face Switzerland on September 29, 2026 in this UEFA Nations League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.