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Scotland U17 vs Albania U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Scotland U17
Scotland U17
Preview
14:00
Albania U17
Albania U17
11/14/2026UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Group Stage - 1
Big match
61%
Scotland U17
model favours
61%19%20%

Top-of-the-table clash — Scotland U17 2 vs Albania U17 3

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
72%
over 2.5 goals
67%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Scotland U1761%
×Draw19%
Albania U1720%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scotland U17
2.43
Albania U17
1.35

Scotland U17 creates 80% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Scotland U17
2.15
Albania U17
1.07

allows per match

Scotland U17
1.62
Albania U17
2.71

finishing

Scotland U17+0.00on par
Albania U17+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scotland U17 ↓

Albania U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Scotland U17 or draw
80%
Scotland U17 or Albania U17
81%
Draw or Albania U17
39%

Winning margin

Scotland U17 wins by 2+
39%
Albania U17 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Scotland U17 1+ goals
91%
Scotland U17 2+ goals
69%
Scotland U17 3+ goals
43%
Albania U17 1+ goals
74%
Albania U17 2+ goals
39%
Albania U17 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Scotland U17 (draw refunded)
75%
Albania U17 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scotland U17 at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Albania U17 away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scotland U17 attack 2.15 + Albania U17 defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.43

Albania U17 attack 1.07 + Scotland U17 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Scotland U17 scores more
61%
level
19%
Albania U17 scores more
20%

Scotland U17 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Scotland U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U17
WLWLL
U17
LWLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Scotland U17 face Albania U17 (UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification)

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification returns with Scotland U17 hosting Albania U17. Match starts November 14, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.