Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Schwechat vs ASV 13 — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Schwechat
Schwechat
CANC
00:00
ASV 13
ASV 13
3/13/2020Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 18Rudolf-Tonn-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Schwechat64%
×Draw18%
ASV 1318%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schwechat
2.47
ASV 13
1.23

Schwechat creates 101% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 59 away

creates per match

Schwechat
1.96
ASV 13
1.25

allows per match

Schwechat
1.21
ASV 13
2.98

finishing

Schwechat+0.00on par
ASV 13+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schwechat ↓

ASV 13 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Schwechat or draw
82%
Schwechat or ASV 13
82%
Draw or ASV 13
36%

Winning margin

Schwechat wins by 2+
42%
ASV 13 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Schwechat 1+ goals
91%
Schwechat 2+ goals
70%
Schwechat 3+ goals
44%
ASV 13 1+ goals
71%
ASV 13 2+ goals
35%
ASV 13 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Schwechat (draw refunded)
78%
ASV 13 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schwechat at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.21 · 75 matches

ASV 13 away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schwechat attack 1.96 + ASV 13 defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 2.47

ASV 13 attack 1.25 + Schwechat defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Schwechat scores more
64%
level
18%
ASV 13 scores more
18%

Schwechat at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Schwechat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Schwechat face ASV 13 (Landesliga - Wien)

Landesliga - Wien returns with Schwechat hosting ASV 13. Match starts March 13, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Schwechat host ASV 13 at Rudolf-Tonn-Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.