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Schrems vs Waidhofen / Thaya — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Schrems
Schrems
CANC
18:30
Waidhofen / Thaya
Waidhofen / Thaya
11/10/2020Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 3Birkenpark Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Schrems59%
×Draw21%
Waidhofen / Thaya20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schrems
2.12
Waidhofen / Thaya
1.16

Schrems creates 83% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 55 away

creates per match

Schrems
1.69
Waidhofen / Thaya
0.71

allows per match

Schrems
1.61
Waidhofen / Thaya
2.55

finishing

Schrems+0.00on par
Waidhofen / Thaya+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schrems ↓

Waidhofen / Thaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Schrems or draw
80%
Schrems or Waidhofen / Thaya
79%
Draw or Waidhofen / Thaya
41%

Winning margin

Schrems wins by 2+
36%
Waidhofen / Thaya wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Schrems 1+ goals
88%
Schrems 2+ goals
62%
Schrems 3+ goals
35%
Waidhofen / Thaya 1+ goals
69%
Waidhofen / Thaya 2+ goals
32%
Waidhofen / Thaya 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Schrems (draw refunded)
74%
Waidhofen / Thaya (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schrems at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.61 · 87 matches

Waidhofen / Thaya away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.55 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schrems attack 1.69 + Waidhofen / Thaya defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.12

Waidhofen / Thaya attack 0.71 + Schrems defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Schrems scores more
59%
level
21%
Waidhofen / Thaya scores more
20%

Schrems at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Schrems will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Schrems host Waidhofen / Thaya

November 10, 2020: Schrems take on Waidhofen / Thaya in Landesliga - Niederosterreich. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Schrems host Waidhofen / Thaya at Birkenpark Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.