SC Wiener Neustadt 3–1 St. Pölten II

SC Wiener Neustadt

FT

3 – 1

St. Pölten II

11/3/2023

Landesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 14Wiener Neustadt Ergo Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

SC Wiener Neustadt46%

×Draw23%

St. Pölten II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC Wiener NeustadtExpected goals in this matchSt. Pölten II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.50

SC Wiener Neustadt

1.85

St. Pölten II

1.50

SC Wiener Neustadt creates 23% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 85 away

1.91

creates per match

1.65

1.36

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

SC Wiener Neustadt

1.91

St. Pölten II

1.65

allows per match

SC Wiener Neustadt

1.36

St. Pölten II

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC Wiener Neustadt+0.00on par

St. Pölten II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Wiener Neustadt ↓

St. Pölten II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

SC Wiener Neustadt or draw

69%

SC Wiener Neustadt or St. Pölten II

77%

Draw or St. Pölten II

54%

Winning margin

SC Wiener Neustadt wins by 2+

25%

St. Pölten II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

SC Wiener Neustadt 1+ goals

84%

SC Wiener Neustadt 2+ goals

55%

SC Wiener Neustadt 3+ goals

28%

St. Pölten II 1+ goals

78%

St. Pölten II 2+ goals

44%

St. Pölten II 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

SC Wiener Neustadt (draw refunded)

59%

St. Pölten II (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Wiener Neustadt at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

St. Pölten II away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.79 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Wiener Neustadt attack 1.91 + St. Pölten II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.85

St. Pölten II attack 1.65 + SC Wiener Neustadt defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

SC Wiener Neustadt scores more

46%

level

23%

St. Pölten II scores more

31%

SC Wiener Neustadt at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SC Wiener Neustadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff