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SC Villa vs Kitara — Premier League 2019

SC Villa
SC Villa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Kitara
Kitara
9/15/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Betway Muteesa II Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

SC Villa49%
×Draw27%
Kitara25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Villa
1.44
Kitara
0.94

SC Villa creates 53% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 57 away

creates per match

SC Villa
1.49
Kitara
1.11

allows per match

SC Villa
0.76
Kitara
1.40

finishing

SC Villa+0.00on par
Kitara+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Villa ↓

Kitara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

SC Villa or draw
75%
SC Villa or Kitara
73%
Draw or Kitara
51%

Winning margin

SC Villa wins by 2+
24%
Kitara wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SC Villa 1+ goals
76%
SC Villa 2+ goals
42%
SC Villa 3+ goals
18%
Kitara 1+ goals
61%
Kitara 2+ goals
24%
Kitara 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

SC Villa (draw refunded)
66%
Kitara (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Villa at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.76 · 99 matches

Kitara away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.40 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Villa attack 1.49 + Kitara defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.44

Kitara attack 1.11 + SC Villa defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

SC Villa scores more
49%
level
27%
Kitara scores more
25%

SC Villa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "SC Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: SC Villa 1–2 Kitara

Kitara beat SC Villa 2-1 in Premier League on September 15, 2023.

The match was played at Betway Muteesa II Stadium in Kampala.