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SC United Bantams vs Peachtree City — USL League Two 2018

SC United Bantams
SC United Bantams
PST
23:30
Peachtree City
Peachtree City
7/11/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 54Southeastern Freight Lines Soccer Complex (Columbia, South Carolina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

SC United Bantams59%
×Draw21%
Peachtree City21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC United Bantams
2.11
Peachtree City
1.17

SC United Bantams creates 80% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 20 away

creates per match

SC United Bantams
2.07
Peachtree City
0.90

allows per match

SC United Bantams
1.44
Peachtree City
2.15

finishing

SC United Bantams+0.00on par
Peachtree City+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC United Bantams ↓

Peachtree City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

SC United Bantams or draw
79%
SC United Bantams or Peachtree City
79%
Draw or Peachtree City
41%

Winning margin

SC United Bantams wins by 2+
36%
Peachtree City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

SC United Bantams 1+ goals
88%
SC United Bantams 2+ goals
62%
SC United Bantams 3+ goals
35%
Peachtree City 1+ goals
69%
Peachtree City 2+ goals
33%
Peachtree City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SC United Bantams (draw refunded)
74%
Peachtree City (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC United Bantams at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches

Peachtree City away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC United Bantams attack 2.07 + Peachtree City defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.11

Peachtree City attack 0.90 + SC United Bantams defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

SC United Bantams scores more
59%
level
21%
Peachtree City scores more
21%

SC United Bantams at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "SC United Bantams will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SC United Bantams face Peachtree City (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with SC United Bantams hosting Peachtree City. Match starts July 11, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

SC United Bantams host Peachtree City at Southeastern Freight Lines Soccer Complex (Columbia, South Carolina).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.