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SC Paulinense SP U20 vs Novorizontino U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

SC Paulinense SP U20
SC Paulinense SP U20
Preview
18:00
Novorizontino U20
Novorizontino U20
9/4/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 14
38%
Novorizontino U20
model favours
33%29%38%

Novorizontino U20 score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

SC Paulinense SP U2033%
×Draw29%
Novorizontino U2038%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Paulinense SP U20
1.08
Novorizontino U20
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 25 away

creates per match

SC Paulinense SP U20
1.25
Novorizontino U20
2.08

allows per match

SC Paulinense SP U20
0.25
Novorizontino U20
0.92

finishing

SC Paulinense SP U20+0.00on par
Novorizontino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 61Over: 3961%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Paulinense SP U20 ↓

Novorizontino U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

SC Paulinense SP U20 or draw
62%
SC Paulinense SP U20 or Novorizontino U20
71%
Draw or Novorizontino U20
67%

Winning margin

SC Paulinense SP U20 wins by 2+
13%
Novorizontino U20 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

SC Paulinense SP U20 1+ goals
66%
SC Paulinense SP U20 2+ goals
29%
SC Paulinense SP U20 3+ goals
10%
Novorizontino U20 1+ goals
69%
Novorizontino U20 2+ goals
33%
Novorizontino U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SC Paulinense SP U20 (draw refunded)
47%
Novorizontino U20 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Paulinense SP U20 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Novorizontino U20 away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Paulinense SP U20 attack 1.25 + Novorizontino U20 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.08

Novorizontino U20 attack 2.08 + SC Paulinense SP U20 defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

SC Paulinense SP U20 scores more
33%
level
29%
Novorizontino U20 scores more
38%

Novorizontino U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Novorizontino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • SC Paulinense SP U20 and Novorizontino U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
WWDLW
U20
DWDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: SC Paulinense SP U20 host Novorizontino U20

September 4, 2026: SC Paulinense SP U20 take on Novorizontino U20 in Paulista - U20. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.