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SC Kriens vs FC Chiasso — League #208 2026

SC Kriens
SC Kriens
FT
4 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
FC Chiasso
FC Chiasso
7/1/2020League #208League #208 · Round 27Stadion Kleinfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

SC Kriens57%
×Draw29%
FC Chiasso14%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Kriens
1.31
FC Chiasso
0.50

SC Kriens creates 162% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

creates per match

SC Kriens
1.38
FC Chiasso
0.50

allows per match

SC Kriens
0.50
FC Chiasso
1.25

finishing

SC Kriens+0.00on par
FC Chiasso+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Kriens ↓

FC Chiasso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

SC Kriens or draw
86%
SC Kriens or FC Chiasso
71%
Draw or FC Chiasso
43%

Winning margin

SC Kriens wins by 2+
28%
FC Chiasso wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

SC Kriens 1+ goals
73%
SC Kriens 2+ goals
38%
SC Kriens 3+ goals
14%
FC Chiasso 1+ goals
39%
FC Chiasso 2+ goals
9%
FC Chiasso 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

SC Kriens (draw refunded)
80%
FC Chiasso (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Kriens at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

FC Chiasso away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Kriens attack 1.38 + FC Chiasso defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

FC Chiasso attack 0.50 + SC Kriens defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

SC Kriens scores more
57%
level
29%
FC Chiasso scores more
14%

SC Kriens at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "SC Kriens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #208: SC Kriens 4–1 FC Chiasso

SC Kriens beat FC Chiasso 4-1 in League #208 on July 1, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Kleinfeld in Kriens.