SC Freiburg vs Derby: Preview & Prediction

SC Freiburg

Preview

14:00

Derby

7/24/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

52%

SC Freiburg

model favours

52%23%25%

SC Freiburg and Derby have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

60%

over 2.5 goals

60%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

SC Freiburg52%

×Draw23%

Derby25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC FreiburgExpected goals in this matchDerby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.25

SC Freiburg

1.88

Derby

1.25

SC Freiburg creates 50% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

2.25

creates per match

1.25

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

SC Freiburg

2.25

Derby

1.25

allows per match

SC Freiburg

1.25

Derby

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC Freiburg+0.00on par

Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Freiburg ↓

Derby →

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

SC Freiburg or draw

75%

SC Freiburg or Derby

77%

Draw or Derby

48%

Winning margin

SC Freiburg wins by 2+

29%

Derby wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

SC Freiburg 1+ goals

85%

SC Freiburg 2+ goals

56%

SC Freiburg 3+ goals

29%

Derby 1+ goals

71%

Derby 2+ goals

36%

Derby 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

SC Freiburg (draw refunded)

67%

Derby (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

SC Freiburg at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Derby away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

SC Freiburg attack 2.25 + Derby defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.88

Derby attack 1.25 + SC Freiburg defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

SC Freiburg scores more

52%

level

23%

Derby scores more

25%

SC Freiburg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "SC Freiburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Freiburg

LWLWD

Derby

WLWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: SC Freiburg host Derby

July 24, 2026: SC Freiburg take on Derby in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

SC Freiburg vs Derby — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Preview: SC Freiburg host Derby