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SC Covilha vs Oliveira Hospital — Liga 3 2021

SC Covilha
SC Covilha
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Oliveira Hospital
Oliveira Hospital
10/1/2023Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 7Estádio Municipal José Santos Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

SC Covilha42%
×Draw27%
Oliveira Hospital32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Covilha
1.38
Oliveira Hospital
1.17

SC Covilha creates 18% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 56 away

creates per match

SC Covilha
1.18
Oliveira Hospital
0.93

allows per match

SC Covilha
1.41
Oliveira Hospital
1.57

finishing

SC Covilha+0.00on par
Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Covilha ↓

Oliveira Hospital →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

SC Covilha or draw
68%
SC Covilha or Oliveira Hospital
73%
Draw or Oliveira Hospital
58%

Winning margin

SC Covilha wins by 2+
19%
Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

SC Covilha 1+ goals
75%
SC Covilha 2+ goals
40%
SC Covilha 3+ goals
16%
Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals
69%
Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals
33%
Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SC Covilha (draw refunded)
57%
Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Covilha at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.41 · 44 matches

Oliveira Hospital away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.57 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Covilha attack 1.18 + Oliveira Hospital defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.38

Oliveira Hospital attack 0.93 + SC Covilha defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SC Covilha scores more
42%
level
27%
Oliveira Hospital scores more
32%

SC Covilha at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SC Covilha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: SC Covilha 3–2 Oliveira Hospital

SC Covilha beat Oliveira Hospital 3-2 in Liga 3 on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal José Santos Pinto in Covilhã.