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SC Braga vs Moreirense — Taça de Portugal 2018

SC Braga
SC Braga
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Moreirense
Moreirense
11/10/2022Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio Municipal de Braga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

SC Braga50%
×Draw23%
Moreirense27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Braga
1.84
Moreirense
1.29

SC Braga creates 43% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

creates per match

SC Braga
2.36
Moreirense
1.58

allows per match

SC Braga
1.00
Moreirense
1.33

finishing

SC Braga+0.00on par
Moreirense+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Braga ↓

Moreirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

SC Braga or draw
73%
SC Braga or Moreirense
77%
Draw or Moreirense
50%

Winning margin

SC Braga wins by 2+
28%
Moreirense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

SC Braga 1+ goals
84%
SC Braga 2+ goals
55%
SC Braga 3+ goals
28%
Moreirense 1+ goals
72%
Moreirense 2+ goals
37%
Moreirense 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

SC Braga (draw refunded)
65%
Moreirense (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Braga at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Moreirense away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Braga attack 2.36 + Moreirense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.84

Moreirense attack 1.58 + SC Braga defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

SC Braga scores more
50%
level
23%
Moreirense scores more
27%

SC Braga at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "SC Braga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SC Braga vs Moreirense

SC Braga beat Moreirense 2-1 in Taça de Portugal on November 10, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Braga in Braga.