SC Braga 1–0 GIL Vicente: Result & Stats

SC Braga

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

GIL Vicente

Ricardo Horta 8'

11/23/2019

Taça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio Municipal de Braga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

SC Braga40%

×Draw25%

GIL Vicente35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC BragaExpected goals in this matchGIL Vicente

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.39

SC Braga

1.49

GIL Vicente

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

2.36

creates per match

1.77

1.00

allows per match

0.62

creates per match

SC Braga

2.36

GIL Vicente

1.77

allows per match

SC Braga

1.00

GIL Vicente

0.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC Braga+0.00on par

GIL Vicente+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Braga ↓

GIL Vicente →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

SC Braga or draw

65%

SC Braga or GIL Vicente

75%

Draw or GIL Vicente

60%

Winning margin

SC Braga wins by 2+

19%

GIL Vicente wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

SC Braga 1+ goals

77%

SC Braga 2+ goals

44%

SC Braga 3+ goals

19%

GIL Vicente 1+ goals

75%

GIL Vicente 2+ goals

40%

GIL Vicente 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

SC Braga (draw refunded)

53%

GIL Vicente (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Braga at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

GIL Vicente away — creates 1.77, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Braga attack 2.36 + GIL Vicente defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.49

GIL Vicente attack 1.77 + SC Braga defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SC Braga scores more

40%

level

25%

GIL Vicente scores more

35%

SC Braga at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SC Braga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

26'

47'

50'

61'

Samuel Lino← Lourency

66'

Fransergio

71'

Rui Fonte← Paulinho

71'

Wilson Eduardo← André Horta

77'

82'

82'

86'

87'

Francisco Trincão← Galeno

90'

B. Viana

SC

GIL

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Sá Pinto

71'▲Rui Fonte←▼Paulinho

71'▲Wilson Eduardo←▼André Horta

87'▲Francisco Trincão←▼Galeno

SC Braga substitutes

FonteEduardoTrincãoVianaNovaisMatheusAgbo

Manager: Vítor Oliveira

61'▲Samuel Lino←▼Lourency

GIL Vicente substitutes

LinoPintoHenriqueErickAfonsoLimaLuís

Taça de Portugal: SC Braga 1–0 GIL Vicente

SC Braga beat GIL Vicente 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on November 23, 2019.

Goals: Ricardo Horta (8').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Braga in Braga.

SC Braga vs GIL Vicente — Taça de Portugal 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Taça de Portugal: SC Braga 1–0 GIL Vicente