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SC Braga vs Estoril — Primeira Liga 2018

SC Braga
SC Braga
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Estoril
Estoril
12/3/2023Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 12Estádio Municipal de Braga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

SC Braga55%
×Draw23%
Estoril21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Braga
1.77
Estoril
1.00

SC Braga creates 77% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 18 away

creates per match

SC Braga
1.77
Estoril
1.08

allows per match

SC Braga
0.91
Estoril
1.78

finishing

SC Braga+0.28scores more
Estoril+0.25scores more

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Braga ↓

Estoril →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

SC Braga or draw
79%
SC Braga or Estoril
77%
Draw or Estoril
45%

Winning margin

SC Braga wins by 2+
31%
Estoril wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

SC Braga 1+ goals
83%
SC Braga 2+ goals
53%
SC Braga 3+ goals
26%
Estoril 1+ goals
63%
Estoril 2+ goals
26%
Estoril 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

SC Braga (draw refunded)
72%
Estoril (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Braga at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.91 · 22 matches

Estoril away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Braga attack 1.77 + Estoril defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.77

Estoril attack 1.08 + SC Braga defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

SC Braga scores more
55%
level
23%
Estoril scores more
21%

SC Braga at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "SC Braga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SC Braga vs Estoril

SC Braga beat Estoril 3-1 in Primeira Liga on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Braga in Braga.