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Saudi Arabia vs Montenegro — Friendlies 2026

Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
Canc
23:00
Montenegro
Montenegro
3/19/2020FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Estadio Wanda Metropolitano (Madrid)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Saudi Arabia36%
×Draw36%
Montenegro28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saudi Arabia
0.83
Montenegro
0.70

Saudi Arabia creates 19% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 9 away

creates per match

Saudi Arabia
1.00
Montenegro
0.56

allows per match

Saudi Arabia
0.83
Montenegro
0.67

finishing

Saudi Arabia+0.00on par
Montenegro+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saudi Arabia ↓

Montenegro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–115%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
45%55%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Saudi Arabia or draw
72%
Saudi Arabia or Montenegro
64%
Draw or Montenegro
64%

Winning margin

Saudi Arabia wins by 2+
12%
Montenegro wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Saudi Arabia 1+ goals
56%
Saudi Arabia 2+ goals
20%
Saudi Arabia 3+ goals
5%
Montenegro 1+ goals
50%
Montenegro 2+ goals
16%
Montenegro 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Saudi Arabia (draw refunded)
56%
Montenegro (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saudi Arabia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.83 · 36 matches

Montenegro away — creates 0.56, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saudi Arabia attack 1.00 + Montenegro defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Montenegro attack 0.56 + Saudi Arabia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Saudi Arabia scores more
36%
level
36%
Montenegro scores more
28%

Saudi Arabia at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Saudi Arabia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Saudi Arabia face Montenegro (Friendlies)

Friendlies returns with Saudi Arabia hosting Montenegro. Match starts March 19, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Saudi Arabia host Montenegro at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano (Madrid).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.