Sassuolo 0–0 Parma: Result & Stats | Serie A

Sassuolo

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Parma

4/14/2019

Serie A · Round 32Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Sassuolo42%

×Draw27%

Parma31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SassuoloExpected goals in this matchParma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.10

Sassuolo

1.33

Parma

1.10

Sassuolo creates 21% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 26 away

1.05

creates per match

0.80

1.41

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Sassuolo

1.05

Parma

0.80

allows per match

Sassuolo

1.41

Parma

1.60

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Sassuolo+0.17scores more

Parma-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo ↓

Parma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sassuolo or draw

69%

Sassuolo or Parma

73%

Draw or Parma

58%

Winning margin

Sassuolo wins by 2+

19%

Parma wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sassuolo 1+ goals

74%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

38%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

15%

Parma 1+ goals

67%

Parma 2+ goals

30%

Parma 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

58%

Parma (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

Parma away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo attack 1.05 + Parma defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.33

Parma attack 0.80 + Sassuolo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sassuolo scores more

42%

level

27%

Parma scores more

31%

Sassuolo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sassuolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff