Sassuolo 1–1 Napoli: Result & Stats | Serie A

Sassuolo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Napoli

3/10/2019

Serie A · Round 27Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Sassuolo26%

×Draw27%

Napoli47%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SassuoloExpected goals in this matchNapoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.42

Sassuolo

0.98

Napoli

1.42

Napoli creates 45% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 34 away

1.05

creates per match

1.42

1.41

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Sassuolo

1.05

Napoli

1.42

allows per match

Sassuolo

1.41

Napoli

0.91

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

Sassuolo+0.17scores more

Napoli+0.23scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo ↓

Napoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sassuolo or draw

53%

Sassuolo or Napoli

73%

Draw or Napoli

74%

Winning margin

Sassuolo wins by 2+

9%

Napoli wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Sassuolo 1+ goals

62%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

26%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

8%

Napoli 1+ goals

76%

Napoli 2+ goals

41%

Napoli 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

36%

Napoli (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

Napoli away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.91 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo attack 1.05 + Napoli defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.98

Napoli attack 1.42 + Sassuolo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sassuolo scores more

26%

level

27%

Napoli scores more

47%

Napoli at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff