Sassuolo 1–0 Inter: Result & Stats | Serie A

Sassuolo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Inter

8/19/2018

Serie A · Round 1Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Sassuolo26%

×Draw25%

Inter48%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SassuoloExpected goals in this matchInter

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.56

Sassuolo

1.08

Inter

1.56

Inter creates 44% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 36 away

1.05

creates per match

1.72

1.41

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Sassuolo

1.05

Inter

1.72

allows per match

Sassuolo

1.41

Inter

1.12

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

Sassuolo+0.17scores more

Inter+0.31scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo ↓

Inter →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sassuolo or draw

52%

Sassuolo or Inter

75%

Draw or Inter

74%

Winning margin

Sassuolo wins by 2+

10%

Inter wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Sassuolo 1+ goals

66%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

29%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

10%

Inter 1+ goals

79%

Inter 2+ goals

46%

Inter 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

35%

Inter (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

Inter away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.12 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo attack 1.05 + Inter defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Inter attack 1.72 + Sassuolo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sassuolo scores more

26%

level

25%

Inter scores more

48%

Inter at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff