Sassuolo 5–3 Genoa: Result & Stats | Serie A

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SassuoloExpected goals in this matchGenoa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.23

Sassuolo

1.26

Genoa

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 27 away

1.05

creates per match

1.04

1.41

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Sassuolo

1.05

Genoa

1.04

allows per match

Sassuolo

1.41

Genoa

1.47

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Sassuolo+0.17scores more

Genoa-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo ↓

Genoa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sassuolo or draw

64%

Sassuolo or Genoa

73%

Draw or Genoa

63%

Winning margin

Sassuolo wins by 2+

16%

Genoa wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sassuolo 1+ goals

72%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

36%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

13%

Genoa 1+ goals

71%

Genoa 2+ goals

35%

Genoa 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

51%

Genoa (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

Genoa away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.47 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo attack 1.05 + Genoa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.26

Genoa attack 1.04 + Sassuolo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sassuolo scores more

37%

level

27%

Genoa scores more

36%

Sassuolo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sassuolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

K. Babacar

Sassuolo · F

8.4

Match Events

27'

29'

31'

33'

34'

K. Boateng↳ K. Babacar

38'

Pol Lirola

41'

K. Babacar

45+1'

N. SpolliOwn goal

46'

A. Favilli← D. Lazović

52'

Domenico Criscito

57'

M. Bourabia← D. Berardi

62'

G. Ferrari↳ M. Locatelli

63'

Daniel Bessa← N. Spolli

67'

N. Dalmonte← C. Kouamé

70'

G. Pandev↳ A. Favilli

78'

J. Boga← K. Babacar

83'

K. Piątek↳ A. Favilli

90'

Alfred Duncan

90'

Daniel Bessa

90'

C. Dell'Orco← M. Lemos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SassuoloGenoa

Overview

43%Possession57%

10Total Shots21

2Corners10

13Fouls19

Shots

10Total Shots21

7On Target5

3Off Target6

0Blocked10

7Inside Box14

3Outside Box7

Passing

43%Possession57%

383Total Passes468

293Accurate Passes384

77%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls19

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

3Offsides1

Serie A: Sassuolo 5–3 Genoa

Sassuolo beat Genoa 5-3 in Serie A on September 2, 2018.

Goals: K. Piątek (27', 83'), K. Boateng (34'), Pol Lirola (38'), K. Babacar (41'), N. Spolli (45+1' o.g.), G. Ferrari (62'), G. Pandev (70').

Genoa controlled possession (57%) and registered 21 shots to 10.

The match was played at Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore in Reggio Emilia.

Sassuolo vs Genoa — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Sassuolo 5–3 Genoa