Sassuolo 1–1 Cagliari: Result & Stats | Serie A

Sassuolo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cagliari

M. Bourabia 87'

G. Simeone 77'

9/20/2020

Serie A · Round 1MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Sassuolo40%

×Draw27%

Cagliari34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SassuoloExpected goals in this matchCagliari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.21

Sassuolo

1.34

Cagliari

1.21

Sassuolo creates 11% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 25 away

1.02

creates per match

0.95

1.48

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Sassuolo

1.02

Cagliari

0.95

allows per match

Sassuolo

1.48

Cagliari

1.67

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Sassuolo+0.23scores more

Cagliari-0.03on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo ↓

Cagliari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sassuolo or draw

66%

Sassuolo or Cagliari

73%

Draw or Cagliari

60%

Winning margin

Sassuolo wins by 2+

18%

Cagliari wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sassuolo 1+ goals

74%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

39%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

15%

Cagliari 1+ goals

70%

Cagliari 2+ goals

34%

Cagliari 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

54%

Cagliari (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.48 · 24 matches

Cagliari away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo attack 1.02 + Cagliari defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.34

Cagliari attack 0.95 + Sassuolo defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sassuolo scores more

40%

level

27%

Cagliari scores more

34%

Sassuolo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sassuolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

A. Cragno

Cagliari · G

8.3

Match Events

7'

Paolo Faragò

16'

Nahitan Nández

46'

F. Pisacane← R. Klavan

50'

Marko Rog

59'

Vlad Chiricheş

61'

G. Kiriakopoulos← Rogério

62'

G. Defrel← L. Haraslín

62'

G. Zappa← F. Caligara

63'

M. Bourabia← Pedro Obiang

75'

M. Müldür← J. Toljan

76'

R. Sottil← M. Rog

76'

C. Oliva← R. Marin

77'

G. Simeone↳ João Pedro

87'

M. Bourabia

88'

A. Tripaldelli← João Pedro

90+5'

K. Ayhan← F. Đuričić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SassuoloCagliari

Overview

67%Possession33%

33Total Shots8

7Corners3

9Fouls18

Shots

33Total Shots8

9On Target4

13Off Target4

11Blocked0

14Inside Box5

19Outside Box3

Passing

67%Possession33%

659Total Passes313

602Accurate Passes257

91%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves8

Discipline

9Fouls18

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2