Sassuolo 2–2 Cagliari: Result & Stats | Serie A

Sassuolo

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Cagliari

Filip Đuričić 36'

Domenico Berardi 6'

Daniele Ragatzu 90'

João Pedro 51'

12/8/2019

Serie A · Round 15MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Sassuolo40%

×Draw27%

Cagliari34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SassuoloExpected goals in this matchCagliari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.21

Sassuolo

1.34

Cagliari

1.21

Sassuolo creates 11% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 25 away

1.02

creates per match

0.95

1.48

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Sassuolo

1.02

Cagliari

0.95

allows per match

Sassuolo

1.48

Cagliari

1.67

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Sassuolo+0.23scores more

Cagliari-0.03on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo ↓

Cagliari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sassuolo or draw

66%

Sassuolo or Cagliari

73%

Draw or Cagliari

60%

Winning margin

Sassuolo wins by 2+

18%

Cagliari wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sassuolo 1+ goals

74%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

39%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

15%

Cagliari 1+ goals

70%

Cagliari 2+ goals

34%

Cagliari 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

54%

Cagliari (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.48 · 24 matches

Cagliari away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo attack 1.02 + Cagliari defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.34

Cagliari attack 0.95 + Sassuolo defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sassuolo scores more

40%

level

27%

Cagliari scores more

34%

Sassuolo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sassuolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Filip Đuričić

Sassuolo · M

8.4

Match Events

6'

Domenico Berardi↳ Filip Đuričić

32'

Ragnar Klavan

36'

Filip Đuričić↳ Jeremy Toljan

37'

38'

39'

45'

45'

46'

46'

Federico Peluso← Marlon

46'

Charalampos Lykogiannis← Luca Pellegrini

46'

Alberto Cerri← Giovanni Simeone

51'

João Pedro

65'

Domenico BerardiMissed penalty

74'

Hamed Junior Traorè← Domenico Berardi

78'

Daniele Ragatzu← Nahitan Nández

89'

Pedro Obiang← Filip Đuričić

90'

Daniele Ragatzu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SassuoloCagliari

Overview

56%Possession44%

16Total Shots10

8Corners4

10Fouls19

Shots

16Total Shots10

2On Target3

9Off Target3

5Blocked4

11Inside Box4

5Outside Box6

Passing

56%Possession44%

507Total Passes397

450Accurate Passes335

89%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls19

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides2

Serie A: Sassuolo 2–2 Cagliari

Sassuolo and Cagliari drew 2-2 in Serie A on December 8, 2019.

Goals: Domenico Berardi (6'), Filip Đuričić (36'), João Pedro (51'), Daniele Ragatzu (90').

Sassuolo controlled possession (56%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Reggio nell'Emilia.

Sassuolo vs Cagliari — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Sassuolo 2–2 Cagliari