Sassuolo 2–6 Atalanta: Result & Stats | Serie A

Sassuolo

FT

2 – 6

HT: 0 – 2

Atalanta

A. Duncan 57', 51'

J. Iličić 90+2', 87', 74'

G. Mancini 54'

A. Gómez 42'

D. Zapata 19'

12/29/2018

Serie A · Round 19Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Sassuolo32%

×Draw27%

Atalanta42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SassuoloExpected goals in this matchAtalanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.35

Sassuolo

1.14

Atalanta

1.35

Atalanta creates 18% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 31 away

1.05

creates per match

1.29

1.41

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Sassuolo

1.05

Atalanta

1.29

allows per match

Sassuolo

1.41

Atalanta

1.23

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Sassuolo+0.17scores more

Atalanta+0.03on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo ↓

Atalanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sassuolo or draw

58%

Sassuolo or Atalanta

73%

Draw or Atalanta

68%

Winning margin

Sassuolo wins by 2+

13%

Atalanta wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Sassuolo 1+ goals

68%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

32%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

11%

Atalanta 1+ goals

74%

Atalanta 2+ goals

39%

Atalanta 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

43%

Atalanta (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

Atalanta away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo attack 1.05 + Atalanta defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.14

Atalanta attack 1.29 + Sassuolo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sassuolo scores more

32%

level

27%

Atalanta scores more

42%

Atalanta at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Gómez

Atalanta · F

10.0

Match Events

16'

Timothy Castagne

19'

D. Zapata↳ A. Gómez

25'

F. Peluso← Marlon

42'

A. Gómez↳ M. Barrow

51'

A. Duncan↳ G. Magnani

54'

G. Mancini↳ J. Palomino

56'

K. Boateng← A. Matri

57'

A. Duncan↳ K. Boateng

63'

J. Iličić← M. Barrow

70'

Stefano Sensi

73'

M. Bourabia← M. Locatelli

74'

J. Iličić↳ Rafael Tolói

81'

Duván Zapata

82'

B. Djimsiti← G. Mancini

87'

J. Iličić↳ A. Gómez

90'

M. Pessina← A. Gómez

90+2'

J. Iličić↳ M. Pašalić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SassuoloAtalanta

Overview

42%Possession58%

15Total Shots17

1Corners8

11Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots17

8On Target9

5Off Target6

2Blocked2

9Inside Box13

6Outside Box4

Passing

42%Possession58%

400Total Passes528

310Accurate Passes449

78%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1