Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sassuolo vs AC Milan — Serie A 2018

Sassuolo
Sassuolo
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
AC Milan
AC Milan
5/22/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 38MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Sassuolo27%
×Draw26%
AC Milan47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sassuolo
1.09
AC Milan
1.52

AC Milan creates 39% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 25 away

creates per match

Sassuolo
1.02
AC Milan
1.57

allows per match

Sassuolo
1.48
AC Milan
1.17

finishing

Sassuolo+0.23scores more
AC Milan-0.13scores less

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo ↓

AC Milan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sassuolo or draw
53%
Sassuolo or AC Milan
74%
Draw or AC Milan
73%

Winning margin

Sassuolo wins by 2+
10%
AC Milan wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Sassuolo 1+ goals
66%
Sassuolo 2+ goals
30%
Sassuolo 3+ goals
10%
AC Milan 1+ goals
78%
AC Milan 2+ goals
45%
AC Milan 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo (draw refunded)
37%
AC Milan (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.48 · 24 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.17 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo attack 1.02 + AC Milan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.09

AC Milan attack 1.57 + Sassuolo defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sassuolo scores more
27%
level
26%
AC Milan scores more
47%

AC Milan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Sassuolo 0–3 AC Milan

AC Milan beat Sassuolo 3-0 in Serie A on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Reggio nell'Emilia.