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Sassuolo U20 vs Roma U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Sassuolo U20
Sassuolo U20
Preview
10:00
Roma U20
Roma U20
12/19/2026Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 16
45%
Roma U20
model favours
31%24%45%

Sassuolo U20 win just 28% against the top half (vs 56% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Sassuolo U2031%
×Draw24%
Roma U2045%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sassuolo U20
1.40
Roma U20
1.72

Roma U20 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 38 away

creates per match

Sassuolo U20
1.56
Roma U20
2.26

allows per match

Sassuolo U20
1.18
Roma U20
1.24

finishing

Sassuolo U20+0.00on par
Roma U20+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo U20 ↓

Roma U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sassuolo U20 or draw
55%
Sassuolo U20 or Roma U20
76%
Draw or Roma U20
69%

Winning margin

Sassuolo U20 wins by 2+
14%
Roma U20 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Sassuolo U20 1+ goals
75%
Sassuolo U20 2+ goals
41%
Sassuolo U20 3+ goals
17%
Roma U20 1+ goals
82%
Roma U20 2+ goals
51%
Roma U20 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo U20 (draw refunded)
41%
Roma U20 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo U20 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

Roma U20 away — creates 2.26, concedes 1.24 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo U20 attack 1.56 + Roma U20 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.40

Roma U20 attack 2.26 + Sassuolo U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sassuolo U20 scores more
31%
level
24%
Roma U20 scores more
45%

Roma U20 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Roma U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Sassuolo U20 sit 16, Roma U20 4 in the table
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged just 1.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
LDWLD
U20
LWDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sassuolo U20 host Roma U20

December 19, 2026: Sassuolo U20 take on Roma U20 in Campionato Primavera - 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.