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Sassuolo U20 vs Lazio U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Sassuolo U20
Sassuolo U20
Preview
09:00
Lazio U20
Lazio U20
4/3/2027Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 31
44%
Sassuolo U20
model favours
44%27%28%

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Sassuolo U2044%
×Draw27%
Lazio U2028%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sassuolo U20
1.36
Lazio U20
1.03

Sassuolo U20 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 38 away

creates per match

Sassuolo U20
1.56
Lazio U20
0.89

allows per match

Sassuolo U20
1.18
Lazio U20
1.16

finishing

Sassuolo U20+0.00on par
Lazio U20+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo U20 ↓

Lazio U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sassuolo U20 or draw
72%
Sassuolo U20 or Lazio U20
73%
Draw or Lazio U20
56%

Winning margin

Sassuolo U20 wins by 2+
21%
Lazio U20 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sassuolo U20 1+ goals
74%
Sassuolo U20 2+ goals
39%
Sassuolo U20 3+ goals
16%
Lazio U20 1+ goals
64%
Lazio U20 2+ goals
28%
Lazio U20 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo U20 (draw refunded)
61%
Lazio U20 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo U20 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

Lazio U20 away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.16 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo U20 attack 1.56 + Lazio U20 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.36

Lazio U20 attack 0.89 + Sassuolo U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sassuolo U20 scores more
44%
level
27%
Lazio U20 scores more
28%

Sassuolo U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sassuolo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U20
LDWLD
U20
LLLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sassuolo U20 vs Lazio U20 — Match Preview

Sassuolo U20 face Lazio U20 on April 3, 2027 in this Campionato Primavera - 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.