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Sassuolo U20 vs Bologna U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Sassuolo U20
Sassuolo U20
Preview
09:00
Bologna U20
Bologna U20
9/12/2026Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 4
41%
Sassuolo U20
model favours
41%27%32%

Sassuolo U20 win just 28% against the top half (vs 56% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Sassuolo U2041%
×Draw27%
Bologna U2032%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sassuolo U20
1.33
Bologna U20
1.14

Sassuolo U20 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 40 away

creates per match

Sassuolo U20
1.56
Bologna U20
1.10

allows per match

Sassuolo U20
1.18
Bologna U20
1.10

finishing

Sassuolo U20+0.00on par
Bologna U20+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo U20 ↓

Bologna U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sassuolo U20 or draw
68%
Sassuolo U20 or Bologna U20
73%
Draw or Bologna U20
59%

Winning margin

Sassuolo U20 wins by 2+
19%
Bologna U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sassuolo U20 1+ goals
74%
Sassuolo U20 2+ goals
38%
Sassuolo U20 3+ goals
15%
Bologna U20 1+ goals
68%
Bologna U20 2+ goals
32%
Bologna U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo U20 (draw refunded)
56%
Bologna U20 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo U20 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

Bologna U20 away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.10 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo U20 attack 1.56 + Bologna U20 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bologna U20 attack 1.10 + Sassuolo U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sassuolo U20 scores more
41%
level
27%
Bologna U20 scores more
32%

Sassuolo U20 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sassuolo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Sassuolo U20 sit 16, Bologna U20 5 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
LDWLD
U20
LWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sassuolo U20 vs Bologna U20 — Match Preview

Sassuolo U20 face Bologna U20 on September 12, 2026 in this Campionato Primavera - 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.