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Sasa vs Ohrid — Second League 2019

Sasa
Sasa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ohrid
Ohrid
11/4/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 11Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Sasa41%
×Draw27%
Ohrid32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sasa
1.37
Ohrid
1.17

Sasa creates 17% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 80 away

creates per match

Sasa
1.48
Ohrid
0.93

allows per match

Sasa
1.41
Ohrid
1.26

finishing

Sasa+0.00on par
Ohrid+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sasa ↓

Ohrid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sasa or draw
68%
Sasa or Ohrid
73%
Draw or Ohrid
59%

Winning margin

Sasa wins by 2+
19%
Ohrid wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sasa 1+ goals
75%
Sasa 2+ goals
40%
Sasa 3+ goals
16%
Ohrid 1+ goals
69%
Ohrid 2+ goals
33%
Ohrid 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sasa (draw refunded)
56%
Ohrid (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sasa at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.41 · 82 matches

Ohrid away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sasa attack 1.48 + Ohrid defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.37

Ohrid attack 0.93 + Sasa defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sasa scores more
41%
level
27%
Ohrid scores more
32%

Sasa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sasa vs Ohrid

Sasa and Ohrid drew 1-1 in Second League on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Makedonska Kamenica.