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Sasa vs Detonit Plachkovica — Second League 2019

Sasa
Sasa
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Detonit Plachkovica
Detonit Plachkovica
11/12/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 12Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Sasa36%
×Draw26%
Detonit Plachkovica38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sasa
1.31
Detonit Plachkovica
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 60 away

creates per match

Sasa
1.48
Detonit Plachkovica
1.33

allows per match

Sasa
1.41
Detonit Plachkovica
1.15

finishing

Sasa+0.00on par
Detonit Plachkovica+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sasa ↓

Detonit Plachkovica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sasa or draw
62%
Sasa or Detonit Plachkovica
74%
Draw or Detonit Plachkovica
64%

Winning margin

Sasa wins by 2+
16%
Detonit Plachkovica wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sasa 1+ goals
73%
Sasa 2+ goals
38%
Sasa 3+ goals
14%
Detonit Plachkovica 1+ goals
75%
Detonit Plachkovica 2+ goals
40%
Detonit Plachkovica 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sasa (draw refunded)
48%
Detonit Plachkovica (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sasa at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.41 · 82 matches

Detonit Plachkovica away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.15 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sasa attack 1.48 + Detonit Plachkovica defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.31

Detonit Plachkovica attack 1.33 + Sasa defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sasa scores more
36%
level
26%
Detonit Plachkovica scores more
38%

Detonit Plachkovica at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Detonit Plachkovica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sasa vs Detonit Plachkovica

Detonit Plachkovica beat Sasa 3-1 in Second League on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Makedonska Kamenica.