Sarpsborg 08 FF 0–0 Brann: Result & Stats

Sarpsborg 08 FF

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Brann

6/13/2021

Eliteserien · Round 7Sarpsborg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF38%

×Draw24%

Brann38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarpsborg 08 FFExpected goals in this matchBrann

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.54

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.52

Brann

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 29 away

1.63

creates per match

1.62

1.46

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.63

Brann

1.62

allows per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.46

Brann

1.42

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.13scores less

Brann+0.04on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarpsborg 08 FF ↓

Brann →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw

62%

Sarpsborg 08 FF or Brann

76%

Draw or Brann

62%

Winning margin

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

18%

Brann wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

78%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

45%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

20%

Brann 1+ goals

79%

Brann 2+ goals

45%

Brann 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

49%

Brann (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarpsborg 08 FF at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.46 · 38 matches

Brann away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.42 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.63 + Brann defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.52

Brann attack 1.62 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

38%

level

24%

Brann scores more

38%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

R. Kristiansen

Brann · D

8.2

Match Events

37'

Kasper Skaanes

61'

M. Simba← N. Jensen

72'

D. Pedersen← O. Kolskogen

76'

Daouda Karamoko Bamba

76'

R. Muhammed← O. Halvorsen

83'

J. Soltvedt← A. Salétros

90+2'

T. Grøgaard← R. Kristiansen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SarpsborgBrann

Overview

54%Possession46%

8Total Shots3

3Corners3

9Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots3

4On Target1

3Off Target2

1Blocked0

4Inside Box1

4Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

585Total Passes493

499Accurate Passes400

85%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls8

0Yellow Cards2

4Offsides0