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Sardor Tursunzoda vs Khatlon — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Sardor Tursunzoda
Sardor Tursunzoda
Preview
13:00
Khatlon
Khatlon
9/4/2026Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 16
38%
Sardor Tursunzoda
model favours
38%29%33%

Khatlon score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sardor Tursunzoda38%
×Draw29%
Khatlon33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sardor Tursunzoda
1.18
Khatlon
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 48 away

creates per match

Sardor Tursunzoda
0.83
Khatlon
1.02

allows per match

Sardor Tursunzoda
1.17
Khatlon
1.52

finishing

Sardor Tursunzoda+0.00on par
Khatlon+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sardor Tursunzoda ↓

Khatlon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sardor Tursunzoda or draw
67%
Sardor Tursunzoda or Khatlon
71%
Draw or Khatlon
62%

Winning margin

Sardor Tursunzoda wins by 2+
16%
Khatlon wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sardor Tursunzoda 1+ goals
69%
Sardor Tursunzoda 2+ goals
33%
Sardor Tursunzoda 3+ goals
12%
Khatlon 1+ goals
66%
Khatlon 2+ goals
30%
Khatlon 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sardor Tursunzoda (draw refunded)
53%
Khatlon (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sardor Tursunzoda at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Khatlon away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.52 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sardor Tursunzoda attack 0.83 + Khatlon defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.18

Khatlon attack 1.02 + Sardor Tursunzoda defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sardor Tursunzoda scores more
38%
level
29%
Khatlon scores more
33%

Sardor Tursunzoda at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sardor Tursunzoda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Tursunzoda
LDLLL
Khatlon
DLDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sardor Tursunzoda face Khatlon (Vysshaya Liga)

Vysshaya Liga returns with Sardor Tursunzoda hosting Khatlon. Match starts September 4, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.