Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sarıyer vs Iğdır FK — 1. Lig 2018

Sarıyer
Sarıyer
Preview
17:00
Iğdır FK
Iğdır FK
11/8/20261. Lig1. Lig · Round 14Yusuf Ziya Onis
44%
Sarıyer
model favours
44%27%29%
1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sarıyer44%
×Draw27%
Iğdır FK29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarıyer
1.41
Iğdır FK
1.09

Sarıyer creates 29% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Sarıyer
1.47
Iğdır FK
1.34

allows per match

Sarıyer
0.84
Iğdır FK
1.34

finishing

Sarıyer+0.00on par
Iğdır FK+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarıyer ↓

Iğdır FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sarıyer or draw
71%
Sarıyer or Iğdır FK
73%
Draw or Iğdır FK
56%

Winning margin

Sarıyer wins by 2+
21%
Iğdır FK wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sarıyer 1+ goals
76%
Sarıyer 2+ goals
41%
Sarıyer 3+ goals
17%
Iğdır FK 1+ goals
66%
Iğdır FK 2+ goals
30%
Iğdır FK 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sarıyer (draw refunded)
60%
Iğdır FK (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarıyer at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Iğdır FK away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarıyer attack 1.47 + Iğdır FK defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.41

Iğdır FK attack 1.34 + Sarıyer defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sarıyer scores more
44%
level
27%
Iğdır FK scores more
29%

Sarıyer at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sarıyer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Iğdır FK outscore their xG (1.6 vs 1.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Sarıyer
WWLWD
FK
DLDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sarıyer face Iğdır FK (1. Lig)

1. Lig returns with Sarıyer hosting Iğdır FK. Match starts November 8, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sarıyer host Iğdır FK at Yusuf Ziya Onis.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.