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Sao Jose W vs Ferroviaria W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Sao Jose W
Sao Jose W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ferroviaria W
Ferroviaria W
5/30/2018Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · GROUP A - Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Sao Jose W29%
×Draw25%
Ferroviaria W46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Jose W
1.18
Ferroviaria W
1.55

Ferroviaria W creates 31% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 71 away

creates per match

Sao Jose W
1.27
Ferroviaria W
1.45

allows per match

Sao Jose W
1.65
Ferroviaria W
1.08

finishing

Sao Jose W+0.00on par
Ferroviaria W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Jose W ↓

Ferroviaria W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sao Jose W or draw
54%
Sao Jose W or Ferroviaria W
75%
Draw or Ferroviaria W
71%

Winning margin

Sao Jose W wins by 2+
12%
Ferroviaria W wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sao Jose W 1+ goals
69%
Sao Jose W 2+ goals
33%
Sao Jose W 3+ goals
12%
Ferroviaria W 1+ goals
79%
Ferroviaria W 2+ goals
46%
Ferroviaria W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sao Jose W (draw refunded)
39%
Ferroviaria W (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Jose W at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

Ferroviaria W away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Jose W attack 1.27 + Ferroviaria W defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.18

Ferroviaria W attack 1.45 + Sao Jose W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sao Jose W scores more
29%
level
25%
Ferroviaria W scores more
46%

Ferroviaria W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ferroviaria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Sao Jose W 0–0 Ferroviaria W

Sao Jose W and Ferroviaria W drew 0-0 in Brasileiro Women on May 30, 2018.