São Gonçalo EC RJ vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ — Copa Rio 2026
Copa Rio · Quarter-finals
São Gonçalo EC RJ are unbeaten in 9 straight
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
São Gonçalo EC RJ43%
Sampaio Corrêa RJ29%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
São Gonçalo EC RJ creates 30% more chances
Season form · 3 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under60
- Over40
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
São Gonçalo EC RJ ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
São Gonçalo EC RJ at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches
Sampaio Corrêa RJ away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
São Gonçalo EC RJ attack 2.00 + Sampaio Corrêa RJ defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.30
Sampaio Corrêa RJ attack 1.00 + São Gonçalo EC RJ defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
São Gonçalo EC RJ at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "São Gonçalo EC RJ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- 83% of Sampaio Corrêa RJ’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
- São Gonçalo EC RJ score first in only 22% of matches
- Sampaio Corrêa RJ have won 3 in a row
- Sampaio Corrêa RJ score first in only 33% of matches
- São Gonçalo EC RJ win 70% of their home games
- São Gonçalo EC RJ and Sampaio Corrêa RJ have never met before
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
No previous meetings between these teams
São Gonçalo EC RJ host Sampaio Corrêa RJ on Wednesday, 5 August 2026 at 18:00. The match is part of the Copa Rio 2026/2027 season.
Preview: São Gonçalo EC RJ host Sampaio Corrêa RJ
August 5, 2026: São Gonçalo EC RJ take on Sampaio Corrêa RJ in Copa Rio. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.