São Bernardo vs Avai: Preview & Prediction

São Bernardo

Preview

22:00

Avai

7/17/2026

Serie B · Round 18Estadio Primeiro de Maio

41%

São Bernardo

model favours

41%29%30%

Avai win just 8% of their away games

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

61%

under 2.5 goals

45%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

São Bernardo41%

×Draw29%

Avai30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São BernardoExpected goals in this matchAvai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.01

São Bernardo

1.23

Avai

1.01

São Bernardo creates 22% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 30 away

1.00

creates per match

1.13

0.89

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

São Bernardo

1.00

Avai

1.13

allows per match

São Bernardo

0.89

Avai

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São Bernardo+0.00on par

Avai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Bernardo ↓

Avai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

São Bernardo or draw

70%

São Bernardo or Avai

71%

Draw or Avai

59%

Winning margin

São Bernardo wins by 2+

18%

Avai wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

São Bernardo 1+ goals

71%

São Bernardo 2+ goals

35%

São Bernardo 3+ goals

13%

Avai 1+ goals

64%

Avai 2+ goals

27%

Avai 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

São Bernardo (draw refunded)

58%

Avai (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Bernardo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Avai away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Bernardo attack 1.00 + Avai defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Avai attack 1.13 + São Bernardo defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

São Bernardo scores more

41%

level

29%

Avai scores more

30%

São Bernardo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "São Bernardo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

São Bernardo score first in only 30% of matches
When Avai score first, they win 82% of the time
70% of São Bernardo’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Avai raise their game against the top half — 40% wins vs the upper half, only 25% vs the lower
São Bernardo sit 7, Avai 18 in the table
Avai outscore their xG (1.6 vs 1.2 expected)