São Bento U20 vs Portuguesa U20

São Bento U20

Preview

18:00

Portuguesa U20

8/14/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 12

37%

São Bento U20

model favours

37%26%37%

São Bento U20 sit 8, Portuguesa U20 33 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

51%

over 2.5 goals

55%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

São Bento U2037%

×Draw26%

Portuguesa U2037%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São Bento U20Expected goals in this matchPortuguesa U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.35

São Bento U20

1.36

Portuguesa U20

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 16 away

1.35

creates per match

1.31

1.39

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

São Bento U20

1.35

Portuguesa U20

1.31

allows per match

São Bento U20

1.39

Portuguesa U20

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São Bento U20+0.00on par

Portuguesa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Bento U20 ↓

Portuguesa U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

São Bento U20 or draw

63%

São Bento U20 or Portuguesa U20

74%

Draw or Portuguesa U20

63%

Winning margin

São Bento U20 wins by 2+

17%

Portuguesa U20 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

São Bento U20 1+ goals

74%

São Bento U20 2+ goals

39%

São Bento U20 3+ goals

16%

Portuguesa U20 1+ goals

74%

Portuguesa U20 2+ goals

39%

Portuguesa U20 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

São Bento U20 (draw refunded)

50%

Portuguesa U20 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Bento U20 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

Portuguesa U20 away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Bento U20 attack 1.35 + Portuguesa U20 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.36

Portuguesa U20 attack 1.31 + São Bento U20 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

São Bento U20 scores more

37%

level

26%

Portuguesa U20 scores more

37%

São Bento U20 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "São Bento U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

U20

WDLWD

U20

WLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff