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São Bento U20 vs Corinthians U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

São Bento U20
São Bento U20
Preview
18:00
Corinthians U20
Corinthians U20
9/4/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 14
40%
Corinthians U20
model favours
34%26%40%

When Corinthians U20 score first, they win 85% of the time

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

São Bento U2034%
×Draw26%
Corinthians U2040%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Bento U20
1.28
Corinthians U20
1.42

Corinthians U20 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 24 away

creates per match

São Bento U20
1.35
Corinthians U20
1.46

allows per match

São Bento U20
1.39
Corinthians U20
1.21

finishing

São Bento U20+0.00on par
Corinthians U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Bento U20 ↓

Corinthians U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

São Bento U20 or draw
60%
São Bento U20 or Corinthians U20
74%
Draw or Corinthians U20
66%

Winning margin

São Bento U20 wins by 2+
15%
Corinthians U20 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

São Bento U20 1+ goals
72%
São Bento U20 2+ goals
37%
São Bento U20 3+ goals
14%
Corinthians U20 1+ goals
76%
Corinthians U20 2+ goals
41%
Corinthians U20 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

São Bento U20 (draw refunded)
46%
Corinthians U20 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Bento U20 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

Corinthians U20 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Bento U20 attack 1.35 + Corinthians U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.28

Corinthians U20 attack 1.46 + São Bento U20 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

São Bento U20 scores more
34%
level
26%
Corinthians U20 scores more
40%

Corinthians U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Corinthians U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U20
WDLWD
U20
WLWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: São Bento U20 host Corinthians U20

September 4, 2026: São Bento U20 take on Corinthians U20 in Paulista - U20. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.