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Santutxu vs San Ignacio — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Santutxu
Santutxu
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
San Ignacio
San Ignacio
11/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 12Estadio Mallona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Santutxu39%
×Draw30%
San Ignacio31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santutxu
1.12
San Ignacio
0.97

Santutxu creates 15% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 112 away

creates per match

Santutxu
1.07
San Ignacio
0.99

allows per match

Santutxu
0.96
San Ignacio
1.17

finishing

Santutxu+0.00on par
San Ignacio+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santutxu ↓

San Ignacio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Santutxu or draw
69%
Santutxu or San Ignacio
70%
Draw or San Ignacio
61%

Winning margin

Santutxu wins by 2+
16%
San Ignacio wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Santutxu 1+ goals
67%
Santutxu 2+ goals
31%
Santutxu 3+ goals
10%
San Ignacio 1+ goals
62%
San Ignacio 2+ goals
25%
San Ignacio 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Santutxu (draw refunded)
55%
San Ignacio (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santutxu at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.96 · 46 matches

San Ignacio away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santutxu attack 1.07 + San Ignacio defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.12

San Ignacio attack 0.99 + Santutxu defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Santutxu scores more
39%
level
30%
San Ignacio scores more
31%

Santutxu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Santutxu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santutxu vs San Ignacio

San Ignacio beat Santutxu 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on November 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Mallona in Bilbao.