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Santos U20 vs Portuguesa U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Santos U20
Santos U20
Preview
18:00
Portuguesa U20
Portuguesa U20
7/26/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 8
64%
Santos U20
model favours
64%20%16%

When Santos U20 score first, they win 91% of the time

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Santos U2064%
×Draw20%
Portuguesa U2016%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos U20
2.19
Portuguesa U20
0.99

Santos U20 creates 121% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 16 away

creates per match

Santos U20
3.00
Portuguesa U20
1.31

allows per match

Santos U20
0.67
Portuguesa U20
1.38

finishing

Santos U20+0.00on par
Portuguesa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos U20 ↓

Portuguesa U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Santos U20 or draw
84%
Santos U20 or Portuguesa U20
80%
Draw or Portuguesa U20
36%

Winning margin

Santos U20 wins by 2+
41%
Portuguesa U20 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Santos U20 1+ goals
89%
Santos U20 2+ goals
64%
Santos U20 3+ goals
37%
Portuguesa U20 1+ goals
63%
Portuguesa U20 2+ goals
26%
Portuguesa U20 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Santos U20 (draw refunded)
80%
Portuguesa U20 (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos U20 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.67 · 27 matches

Portuguesa U20 away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos U20 attack 3.00 + Portuguesa U20 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 2.19

Portuguesa U20 attack 1.31 + Santos U20 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Santos U20 scores more
64%
level
20%
Portuguesa U20 scores more
16%

Santos U20 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Santos U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Santos U20 have won 3 in a row
  • Santos U20 sit 6, Portuguesa U20 33 in the table
  • 36% of Santos U20’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Santos U20 and Portuguesa U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
WWLWW
U20
WLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Santos U20 host Portuguesa U20

July 26, 2026: Santos U20 take on Portuguesa U20 in Paulista - U20. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.