Santos U17 vs Internacional U17

Santos U17

Preview

20:00

Internacional U17

8/18/2026

Brasileiro U17 · Round 12

63%

Santos U17

model favours

63%19%18%

Both teams score in 80% of Internacional U17’s matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1

likely score

68%

over 2.5 goals

63%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Santos U1763%

×Draw19%

Internacional U1718%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santos U17Expected goals in this matchInternacional U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.19

Santos U17

2.35

Internacional U17

1.19

Santos U17 creates 97% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 20 away

2.50

creates per match

1.15

1.22

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Santos U17

2.50

Internacional U17

1.15

allows per match

Santos U17

1.22

Internacional U17

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos U17+0.00on par

Internacional U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos U17 ↓

Internacional U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Santos U17 or draw

82%

Santos U17 or Internacional U17

81%

Draw or Internacional U17

37%

Winning margin

Santos U17 wins by 2+

41%

Internacional U17 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Santos U17 1+ goals

90%

Santos U17 2+ goals

68%

Santos U17 3+ goals

41%

Internacional U17 1+ goals

70%

Internacional U17 2+ goals

33%

Internacional U17 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Santos U17 (draw refunded)

78%

Internacional U17 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos U17 at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

Internacional U17 away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos U17 attack 2.50 + Internacional U17 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.35

Internacional U17 attack 1.15 + Santos U17 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Santos U17 scores more

63%

level

19%

Internacional U17 scores more

18%

Santos U17 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Santos U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Internacional U17 win just 10% of their away games
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 3 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

U17

LWDWL

U17

LWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff