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Santos Laguna vs Toluca — Liga MX 2026

Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Toluca
Toluca
11/6/2023Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 16Estadio Corona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Santos Laguna46%
×Draw25%
Toluca29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos Laguna
1.60
Toluca
1.21

Santos Laguna creates 32% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 149 away

creates per match

Santos Laguna
1.66
Toluca
1.23

allows per match

Santos Laguna
1.18
Toluca
1.54

finishing

Santos Laguna+0.00on par
Toluca+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos Laguna ↓

Toluca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Santos Laguna or draw
71%
Santos Laguna or Toluca
75%
Draw or Toluca
54%

Winning margin

Santos Laguna wins by 2+
24%
Toluca wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Santos Laguna 1+ goals
80%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
47%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
22%
Toluca 1+ goals
70%
Toluca 2+ goals
34%
Toluca 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
62%
Toluca (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos Laguna at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.18 · 145 matches

Toluca away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.54 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos Laguna attack 1.66 + Toluca defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.60

Toluca attack 1.23 + Santos Laguna defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Santos Laguna scores more
46%
level
25%
Toluca scores more
29%

Santos Laguna at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Santos Laguna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Santos Laguna 3–1 Toluca

Santos Laguna beat Toluca 3-1 in Liga MX on November 6, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Corona in Torreón.